Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 9.3 | 9.1% | 88 | 0.76% |
| 10-19 | 19 | 10.3 | 10.7% | 103 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 38 | 21.7 | 23.8% | 230 | 1.1% |
| 30-39 | 34 | 19.7 | 20.6% | 199 | 1.46% |
| 40-49 | 26 | 13.6 | 14.5% | 140 | 1.34% |
| 50-59 | 19 | 9.7 | 9.7% | 94 | 0.75% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 6.9 | 7.2% | 70 | 0.61% |
| 70+ | 9 | 4.3 | 4.5% | 43 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 168 | 95.3 | 100% | 966 | 0.92% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 20327 | 67041 | 608 | 161 | 544 |
| Dec 25 | 20328 | 67067 | 608 | 161 | 482 |
| Dec 26 | 20406 | 67081 | 608 | 161 | 472 |
| Dec 27 | 20542 | 67139 | 612 | 161 | 536 |
| Dec 28 | 20660 | 67214 | 615 | 162 | 592 |
| Dec 29 | 20827 | 67328 | 617 | 163 | 758 |
| Dec 30 | 20995 | 67443 | 617 | 163 | 863 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 13593 | 39011 | 585 | 139 | 495 |
| Dec 25 | 13593 | 39022 | 585 | 139 | 407 |
| Dec 26 | 13594 | 39036 | 585 | 139 | 324 |
| Dec 27 | 13682 | 39070 | 586 | 140 | 323 |
| Dec 28 | 13768 | 39108 | 592 | 141 | 378 |
| Dec 29 | 13835 | 39159 | 596 | 143 | 440 |
| Dec 30 | 13940 | 39207 | 596 | 144 | 466 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 4.7 | 11.9% | 55 | 0.71% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 3.4 | 8.6% | 40 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 9.4 | 16.2% | 75 | 1.05% |
| 30-39 | 20 | 8.1 | 16.6% | 77 | 0.92% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 7.9 | 17% | 79 | 1.02% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 7.0 | 12.3% | 57 | 0.59% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 5.6 | 10.8% | 50 | 0.59% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.1 | 6.5% | 30 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 105 | 49.4 | 100% | 464 | 0.72% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 10359 | 25988 | 460 | 114 | 214 |
| Dec 25 | 10378 | 26009 | 460 | 114 | 206 |
| Dec 26 | 10395 | 26030 | 462 | 114 | 199 |
| Dec 27 | 10419 | 26066 | 462 | 115 | 204 |
| Dec 28 | 10451 | 26088 | 465 | 115 | 208 |
| Dec 29 | 10519 | 26120 | 468 | 116 | 260 |
| Dec 30 | 10568 | 26154 | 469 | 116 | 294 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.9 | 5.1% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.7 | 6.5% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 8.0 | 25.5% | 75 | 1.66% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 6.4 | 19.4% | 57 | 1.05% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 3.6 | 10.5% | 31 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 4.4 | 12.6% | 37 | 0.55% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.4 | 11.6% | 34 | 0.54% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.9 | 8.8% | 26 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 49 | 32.3 | 100% | 294 | 0.65% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 21710 | 79376 | 802 | 139 | 842 |
| Dec 25 | 21710 | 79407 | 802 | 139 | 749 |
| Dec 26 | 21797 | 79438 | 803 | 139 | 751 |
| Dec 27 | 21895 | 79588 | 807 | 139 | 789 |
| Dec 28 | 22106 | 79788 | 808 | 139 | 941 |
| Dec 29 | 22210 | 79950 | 819 | 139 | 1019 |
| Dec 30 | 22297 | 80140 | 824 | 139 | 1040 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 7.6 | 8.5% | 88 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 9.4 | 11.3% | 118 | 0.71% |
| 20-29 | 22 | 22.7 | 26.9% | 280 | 1.32% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 19.9 | 20.9% | 217 | 1.6% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 12.1 | 13.8% | 143 | 1.05% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 9.6 | 10% | 104 | 0.73% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 6.4 | 5.6% | 58 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 6 | 2.7 | 3.1% | 32 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 87 | 90.4 | 100% | 1040 | 0.88% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 69981 | 453883 | 2214 | 409 | 3717 |
| Dec 25 | 69981 | 454033 | 2214 | 409 | 3238 |
| Dec 26 | 70225 | 454426 | 2214 | 409 | 2902 |
| Dec 27 | 71073 | 454907 | 2224 | 409 | 3256 |
| Dec 28 | 71668 | 455419 | 2239 | 409 | 3730 |
| Dec 29 | 72224 | 456186 | 2246 | 409 | 4163 |
| Dec 30 | 72607 | 456846 | 2256 | 409 | 4033 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 70 | 52.0 | 11.9% | 480 | 0.8% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 63.4 | 16.5% | 666 | 0.94% |
| 20-29 | 113 | 104.9 | 29.4% | 1184 | 1.14% |
| 30-39 | 84 | 67.6 | 16.8% | 678 | 0.89% |
| 40-49 | 37 | 45.4 | 12% | 485 | 0.74% |
| 50-59 | 21 | 26.6 | 6.7% | 269 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 17.7 | 4.4% | 179 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 8 | 9.0 | 2.3% | 92 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 383 | 386.6 | 100% | 4033 | 0.74% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | 1085565 | 3813907 | 53514 | 11028 | 41872 |
| Dec 25 | 1086288 | 3815701 | 53525 | 11029 | 37027 |
| Dec 26 | 1088992 | 3817663 | 53539 | 11029 | 34801 |
| Dec 27 | 1095891 | 3821603 | 53749 | 11082 | 37510 |
| Dec 28 | 1103754 | 3827177 | 54008 | 11119 | 43702 |
| Dec 29 | 1112659 | 3834072 | 54200 | 11151 | 51041 |
| Dec 30 | 1120669 | 3840482 | 54359 | 11173 | 54125 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 734 | 504.1 | 9.5% | 5148 | 0.8% |
| 10-19 | 898 | 691.7 | 13.6% | 7385 | 0.98% |
| 20-29 | 1771 | 1100.3 | 20.2% | 10956 | 1.45% |
| 30-39 | 1449 | 960.7 | 17.9% | 9695 | 1.28% |
| 40-49 | 1179 | 743.1 | 14% | 7591 | 1.09% |
| 50-59 | 909 | 626.0 | 11.8% | 6369 | 0.78% |
| 60-69 | 662 | 417.9 | 7.9% | 4255 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 403 | 271.9 | 5% | 2706 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 8010 | 5318.1 | 100% | 54125 | 0.93% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-01-22 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 10832"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges